In this series, we are analyzing 1,000,000 deals which were played on-line. These deals cover a wide range of level of play and were provided by Stephen Pickett with Bridge Browser.
I know that this question will remind people of "The LAW of Total Tricks," but I am innocently asking:
On any given deal, what is the most likely division of the 13 tricks?
Answer: 9 and 4
The most likely number of tricks to be taken (by the declaring side) is 9 -- it happens 21% of the time.
Close behind (in second place) is 10 tricks -- on 20 % of all deals played.
The full table is below (note: "0" includes deals which were passed out)
| # Tricks by Declaring SIDE | % |
|---|---|
| 0 | 1.52 |
| 1 | .02 |
| 2 | .05 |
| 3 | .13 |
| 4 | .54 |
| 5 | 1.81 |
| 6 | 4.84 |
| 7 | 10.02 |
| 8 | 16.19 |
| 9 | 21.01 |
| 10 | 20.21 |
| 11 | 14.13 |
| 12 | 7.26 |
| 13 | 2.27 |
Next month -- THE OPENING BID (which is most likely, how often is 1NT opened, etc.)